This post is authored by Adjunct Associate Professor Paul Read | School of Psychology
Ever since Black Summer and based upon the three unique climate drivers that converged in that catastrophic period, climate scientists have been persistently warning government, emergency services, and media that this coming summer will be the one to look out for (Bureau of Meteorology, 2020).
The latest Northern Hemisphere summer was characterised by widespread extreme weather events associated with the combined effects of climate change and a ‘Super El Niño’ (Weatherzone, 2026). Across Europe, more than 1,000 wildfires burned 540,000 hectares, displaced over 360,000 people, and coincided with more than 36,000 excess heat-related deaths (Phys.org, 2026; RTÉ, 2026).
These are no longer ‘once-in-a-generation’ statistical anomalies; they are built into the new normal.
Australia is also exhibiting conditions associated with elevated bushfire risk. Since Black Summer, rainfall has replenished fuel loads across the eastern seaboard (AFAC, 2026). Early heatwaves have already pushed temperatures 1.6°C above what would be expected in a stable climate system, while El Niño conditions are widening the fire season, similar to the pattern observed in 2019 (NewsWire, 2026; Daily Telegraph, 2026; Read, 2019c).
During Black Summer, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and a negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) combined to suppress rainfall and drive hot, dry winds into New South Wales and Victoria (Bureau of Meteorology, 2020; Read, 2020). The resulting fires developed into megafires that generated their own lightning and weather systems (Dowdy et al., 2021).
Attribution studies found anthropogenic climate change contributed around 30% to the severity of the event (van Oldenborgh et al., 2021). Black Summer resulted in 450 direct and indirect deaths, affected 3 billion animals, and cost up to $100 billion, while highlighting how human-induced warming has increased the likelihood of catastrophic fire seasons and reduced their estimated return interval from once every 85 years to approximately once every eight years (Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, 2020; van Oldenborgh et al., 2021; Canadell et al., 2021).
As a researcher who has spent decades analysing the intersection of human behavior, criminology, and bushfires, I must stress a crucial distinction embedded in the empirical data: climate change does not pull the trigger, but it relentlessly loads the gun (Read, 2019b). While local ignitions remain tied to human hands (more than 80% in fact)—whether through structural negligence, agricultural accidents, or malicious arson—the atmosphere dictates the scale of the subsequent disaster (Read, 2019a). When a landscape starved of moisture and baked in unprecedented heatwaves catches fire in a summer scorched by climate change, no matter what the source of ignition, the result is catastrophic (Read, 2019b).
The primary drivers of Australia’s upcoming 2026–27 summer are a historic, record-breaking El Niño and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This powerful combination is compounded by long-term climate change, which has significantly ‘loaded the dice’ by elevating baseline global temperatures. Together, these forces are driving extreme, widespread atmospheric moisture demands across the country. The climate setup, fire risks, and drought outlooks compare directly to the catastrophic 2019–20 Black Summer are a triple whammy. With potentially even stronger ocean temperature dynamics, they include:
- Record-Breaking El Niño: Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have soared more than 2°C to 3°C above average. Meteorologists warn this could rank 2026 as the strongest El Niño event on record, drastically suppressing rainfall over eastern and southern Australia (Weatherzone, 2026).
- Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A positive IOD is developing in tandem. Much like in 2019, this chokes off western moisture feeds, cutting off rainbearing systems before they can cross the continent (Bureau of Meteorology, 2020).
- Climate Change Background: Baseline warming means that heatwaves are longer, cool-season rainfall has permanently declined in the south, and evaporation happens much faster—amplifying the severity of both drivers (Daily Telegraph, 2026).
While the Black Summer was the result of a multi-year drying cycle, the 2026–27 season will bring unprecedented, explosive heat metrics acting on a landscape dense with overgrown, drying vegetation. Fire authorities warn that even regions with a ‘normal’ outlook can transition into a highly flammable state within just a few days of hot, windy weather (AFAC, 2026). Heightened fire potential is forecast for northern and southeastern NSW, south-east Queensland, northeastern Tasmania, parts of WA, SA, Victoria, and large expanses of the Northern Territory (AFAC, 2026).
The coming summer will need us yet again to revisit our contribution to global carbon emissions and think carefully about the 37 new coal, oil and gas developments recently approved that will add to the historical emissions from Australia, representing 1.5% of total world emissions since 1850. As Australians we are still living as if we had three planets to exploit. For the sake of our farms and our future, this needs to stop. Otherwise, the new normal, the megafires and their return rates, will simply get bigger and more frequent.
References
AFAC. (2026). Seasonal bushfire outlook: Spring 2026. Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council.
Bureau of Meteorology. (2020). Special climate statement 72—Severe fire weather conditions in southeast Australia in late 2019 (Special Climate Statement). Commonwealth of Australia.
Canadell, J. G., Meyer, C. P., Cook, G. D., Dowdy, A., Smith, T. E., Brandis, K., … & Haverd, V. (2021). Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change. Nature Communications, 12(1), 6921.
Daily Telegraph. (2026, September 21). Australia faces dangerous heatwaves and severe thunderstorms as extreme weather season begins.
Dowdy, A. J., Fromm, M. D., & McCarthy, N. (2021). Pyrocumulonimbus lightning and fire behavior during the Australian Black Summer. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126(11), Article e2020JD034114.
NewsWire. (2026, September 26). Severe heatwaves predicted as summer-like temperatures heat up parts of Australia this spring. News.com.au.
Phys.org. (2026, September 4). Record European fires burn over 500,000 hectares during devastating summer. Science X Network.
Read, P. (2019a, November 13). Not powerless to prevent bushfires. Monash Lens.
Read, P. (2019b, November 18). Arson, mischief and recklessness: 87 per cent of fires are man-made. The Sydney Morning Herald.
Read, P. (2019c) Early-season NSW ‘catastrophic’ bushfires are a sign of more to come over summer. Monash Lens. https://lens.monash.edu/australian-bushfires-sign-of-whats-to-come/
Read, P. (2020) What role did climate change play in the Australian megafires? Monash Lens. https://lens.monash.edu/how-much-did-climate-change-cause-the-australian-megafires/
Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements. (2020). Report of the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements. Commonwealth of Australia.
Weatherzone. (2026, August 17). El Niño brewing system on pace to make 2026 hottest-year ever. Nine News.
RTÉ. (2026, September 25). Europe’s hidden heat toll: Excess mortality in summer ’26. European Public Service Media Collaboration.
van Oldenborgh, G. J., Krikken, F., Lewis, S., Leach, N. J., Lehner, F., Saunders, K. R., van Weele, M., Haustein, K., Li, S., Wallom, D., Sparrow, S., Arrighi, J., Singh, R. P., van Aalst, M. K., Philip, S. Y., Vautard, R., & Otto, F. E. L. (2021). Attribution of the severe 2019/20 bushfire risk in southeastern Australia to anthropogenic climate change. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21(3), 941–960.